Election ratings are an editorial assessment, not a prediction of who will win.

Political Nerd outlook

Election ratings

Explore the current Political Nerd ratings for the 2026 U.S. Senate and governor races. Hover or focus a state for its rating.

Current outlook

2026 U.S. Senate

Ratings for Senate contests on the 2026 map, alongside the full 100-seat chamber meter.

Seat meter

Senate seat meter

50 D4 Toss-Up46 R

Each block represents one seat. Seats not on the 2026 ballot remain included in the chamber total.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Solid I
Likely I
Lean I
Toss-Up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
No Election

A United States map showing the current 2026 U.S. Senate rating for every state. Use Tab to move through states and hear each state and rating.

VTNHMARICTNJDEMD
AKAlaskaLean D
ALAlabamaSolid R
ARArkansasSolid R
AZArizonaNo Election
CACaliforniaNo Election
COColoradoSolid D
CTConnecticutNo Election
DEDelawareSolid D
FLFloridaLikely R
GAGeorgiaSolid D
HIHawaiiNo Election
IAIowaToss-Up
IDIdahoSolid R
ILIllinoisSolid D
INIndianaNo Election
KSKansasToss-Up
KYKentuckySolid R
LALouisianaSolid R
MAMassachusettsSolid D
MDMarylandNo Election
MEMaineToss-Up
MIMichiganLean D
MNMinnesotaLikely D
MOMissouriNo Election
MSMississippiLean R
MTMontanaSolid R
NCNorth CarolinaSolid D
NDNorth DakotaNo Election
NENebraskaLean R
NHNew HampshireLikely D
NJNew JerseySolid D
NMNew MexicoSolid D
NVNevadaNo Election
NYNew YorkNo Election
OHOhioLean D
OKOklahomaSolid R
OROregonSolid D
PAPennsylvaniaNo Election
RIRhode IslandSolid D
SCSouth CarolinaLean R
SDSouth DakotaLikely R
TNTennesseeSolid R
TXTexasToss-Up
UTUtahNo Election
VAVirginiaSolid D
VTVermontNo Election
WAWashingtonNo Election
WIWisconsinNo Election
WVWest VirginiaSolid R
WYWyomingSolid R